2024-03-29T05:34:05Zhttps://ipsj.ixsq.nii.ac.jp/ej/?action=repository_oaipmhoai:ipsj.ixsq.nii.ac.jp:000626082023-04-27T10:00:04Z01164:02735:05641:05724
Bayesian Forecasting of WWW Traffic on the Time Varying Poisson ModelBayesian Forecasting of WWW Traffic on the Time Varying Poisson Modelenghttp://id.nii.ac.jp/1001/00062608/Technical Reporthttps://ipsj.ixsq.nii.ac.jp/ej/?action=repository_action_common_download&item_id=62608&item_no=1&attribute_id=1&file_no=1Copyright (c) 2009 by the Information Processing Society of JapanResearch Institute for Science and Engineering, Waseda UniversityDepartment of Applied Mathematics, School of Fundamental Science and Engineering, Waseda UniversityResearch Institute for Science and Engineering, Waseda UniversityDaiki, KoizumiToshiyasu, MatsushimaShigeichi, HirasawaTraffic forecasting from past observed traffic data with small calculation complexity has been one of important problems for planning of servers and networks. Focusing on World Wide Web (WWW) traffic as fundamental investigation, this paper would deal with Bayesian forecasting of network traffic on the time varying Poisson model from a viewpoint from statistical decision theory. Under this model, we would show that the forecasting estimate is obtained by simple arithmetic calculation with a known constant of time varying degree parameter and expresses real WWW traffic well from both theoretical and empirical points of view.Traffic forecasting from past observed traffic data with small calculation complexity has been one of important problems for planning of servers and networks. Focusing on World Wide Web (WWW) traffic as fundamental investigation, this paper would deal with Bayesian forecasting of network traffic on the time varying Poisson model from a viewpoint from statistical decision theory. Under this model, we would show that the forecasting estimate is obtained by simple arithmetic calculation with a known constant of time varying degree parameter and expresses real WWW traffic well from both theoretical and empirical points of view.AN10505667研究報告数理モデル化と問題解決(MPS)2009-MPS-745162009-07-062009-08-19